The winter meetings are over, Juan Soto is a New York Met, and several of the marquee names on this year’s free-agent market and trade market have been on the move. But as teams started to pivot from their initial plans for this winter, the biggest issue soon became that there was no franchise-altering player available once Soto was off the market.
At least, that was the case until Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker became available.
Since arriving in the big leagues in 2019, Tucker has been a force for the Astros and the true definition of a five-tool player. He owns a .274/.353/.516 slash line with 125 home runs and 94 stolen bases, and he’s an elite defender in right field. Tucker was on pace to have the best year of his career last season — with 23 homers in 79 games — before a shin fracture from a foul ball forced him to miss significant time.
In recent weeks, it emerged that the Astros were open to moving the star outfielder.
On Friday, the Astros traded Tucker to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for infielder Isaac Paredes, pitcher Hayden Wesneski and third-base prospect Cam Smith.
The deal instantly makes Tucker the best player in Chicago. For Houston, Paredes has the ability to play third or first base with pull-side power that should play at Minute Maid Park. Wesneski is a versatile arm with good stuff who pitched in 68 games with 22 starts for the Cubs, with a respectable career 3.93 ERA.
But the crown jewel of the trade for the Astros is Smith. The Cubs’ 2024 first-round draft pick was one of the best hitters in college baseball before Chicago took him with the 14th overall pick last year. He performed well during his first year in pro ball, slashing .313/.396/.609 with seven homers and 24 RBI, and finished the year in Double-A.
What does this deal mean for the Astros?
The Astros have won a lot over the past decade, including two World Series titles. The only team that has won more games than Houston since 2015 is the Los Angeles Dodgers. But keeping their winning window open for that long comes at a cost, and it left the Astros’ prospect pool pretty thin. Sources aware of Houston’s thinking told Yahoo Sports that the hope was that a Tucker trade could help replenish the farm system that allowed the Astros to reach the ALCS in seven of the past eight seasons.
With such a trade now complete, Paredes slots into the Astros’ infield and lineup immediately, and Wesneski could fill multiple roles for Houston, either in the bullpen or the rotation, depending on how the remainder of their offseason shakes out. And with Smith, who was ranked as the Cubs’ No. 7 prospect by MLB Pipeline, the Astros might’ve acquired their third baseman of the future.
The other side of the equation for Houston was that the team’s owner, Jim Crane, doesn’t seem keen on going beyond six years in a contract offer for any player, whether that was Tucker or a free agent such as Alex Bregman, whom the team would like to re-sign. The addition of Paredes likely makes re-signing Bregman less feasible, but Houston could, in theory, move Paredes to first if they still want to retain their longtime star.
What does it mean for the Cubs?
What the Cubs have lacked in recent years has been a true, difference-making bat in the middle of their lineup. They haven’t had one since the days of Kris Bryant. Now Tucker provides exactly that — a player who can produce consistently on offense and carry a lineup for weeks at a time. And with other teams in the National League having game-changing players, including Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., Soto and Francisco Lindor, and the Dodgers’ three MVPs, Chicago now has an answer.
The addition of Tucker also immediately makes the Cubs better on defense. With Tucker presumably in right field, Pete Crow-Armstrong in center and Ian Happ in left, you can make the case that the Cubs have one of the best defensive outfields in baseball. What the team will do with outfielders Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki still needs to be figured out, but this deal gives Chicago moveable assets to continue to improve the roster.
And in the aftermath of this trade, the Cubs have even more incentive to keep improving. The next step for Chicago will be to land one more starting pitcher; they’ve been active in the free-agent and trade markets for starters. Adding a high-leverage arm or two in the bullpen is also a significant need and would really put a stamp on what is shaping up to be an impactful winter for the Cubs.
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But there’s one caveat
For the Cubs, the concern with acquiring Tucker has nothing to do with his talent, which at his best puts him among the top 10 players in MLB, and everything to do with his contract situation. The 27-year-old is entering his final season of club control before he’ll hit the free-agent market next winter. With the Yankees and Soto, we just witnessed a cautionary tale about making a move such as this.
New York pulled the trigger on a Soto trade to acquire what they hoped would be the final piece of their championship puzzle, and they had great success, getting all the way to the World Series before falling to the Dodgers. Despite all that, Soto decided to leave in free agency and sign with the Mets, leaving the Bronx Bombers with a major hole in their lineup.
Tucker entering free agency after the 2025 season is almost a certainty, according to sources. After Soto signed his record-breaking deal, players such as Tucker and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is also set to be a free agent next winter, are even more incentivized to let the free-agent process play out, with potentially a $400-500 million payday awaiting them at the end.
The Cubs traded for Tucker with full awareness that he might leave in 12 months and sign elsewhere. There is no guarantee that he will stay in Chicago or even that they will have an advantage in free-agent negotiations. In the case of the Yankees, they at least still have a top-five player in Aaron Judge following Soto’s departure, but the Cubs won’t likely have that type of security.
The trio of players the Cubs gave up represent a steep price for a one-year rental. But it’s understandable that the price was so high. Tucker is the type of player who can take a team over the top as a contender or — perhaps more aptly in Chicago’s case — take a borderline playoff team and push them into October. With Soto signed, Tucker was the only player available with that kind of ability.
But the Cubs need to be certain they have the rest of the pieces in place before Opening Day. Because they’ll likely get only one chance with Tucker on their roster.
