When D’Anton Lynn inherited one of the worst defenses in college football, the expectation was that even a middling performance would make a major difference at USC. Especially when paired with one of the most electric offenses in college football.
A year later, Lynn’s defense has made significant strides. USC leaped from 121st to 32nd in scoring defense, from 119th to 43rd in rush defense and from 119th to 65th in total defense, while its third-down conversion rate, red-zone conversion rate, missed tackles and explosive plays allowed all went down considerably. But with one game left in the season, the Trojans are still barely clinging to bowl eligibility.
That’s no fault of Lynn, whose USC defense is peaking right when it was supposed to.
Read more: USC’s improving offensive line faces big test against Notre Dame
“We’re playing our best ball right now,” cornerback Greedy Vance said. “We’re communicating at a high level. We’re playing fast. We have less mental errors. And you know, we’ve just been around each other for a longer time now. So we’re more comfortable playing together.”
No. 5 Notre Dame has been playing its best ball since mid-September. No team in college football has been more dominant since the Irish were upset by Northern Illinois early in the season. Notre Dame leads the nation with a +301 point differential, despite having the No. 10 strength of schedule according to FPI, and have won each of their last six games by an average margin of almost 34 points.
Read more: D’Anton Lynn unlocking USC’s defensive potential where others failed
As Lynn sees it, Notre Dame is “the best offense that we’ve played.” Which should make for an ideal measuring stick, to finish out his first year at the helm.
“They’re very talented,” Lynn said. “Their offensive line is probably going to be the best offensive line we played all year. Both of their backs are very good backs. They have big tight ends. They have speed on the outside.”
Here’s what else you should watch during USC’s matchup with Notre Dame on Saturday (12:30 p.m. PST on CBS) at the Coliseum:
A true dual threat
Through their debut season in the Big Ten, a conference with a rich history of pocket-bound passers, the Trojans haven’t had to worry much about opposing quarterbacks taking off and running.
That’s where Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard will be at his most dangerous Saturday. Leonard has already rushed 112 times for 671 yards and 12 touchdowns this season — trailing Irish leading rusher Jeremiyah Love by just nine carries and one touchdown.
“He’s very, very fast,” Lynn said of Leonard. “And he’s so tall and long that he doesn’t look that fast on tape. But he covers a lot of ground. So containing him, especially on third downs, is going to be critical.”
Read more: ‘Like a zen thing’: How USC’s Eddie Czaplicki became college football’s best punter
Keeping Leonard in the pocket and daring him to pass used to be the best way to neutralize the Notre Dame quarterback. But Leonard has been much more efficient throwing downfield in recent weeks.
During his past six games, Leonard is averaging two yards more per attempt than he did during the first half of the season. Still, Leonard has yet to crack 229 passing yards this season.
Red-zone regret
On three consecutive drives in the first half last Saturday, USC had a first down inside of the UCLA five-yard line. And during three consecutive drives, the Trojans were left on the doorstep, forced to settle for field goals.
Riley brushed off the notion that playcalling was to blame, suggesting Tuesday that the three failed trips — with the exception of one call he wanted back — were a function primarily of poor execution. But this week, against one of the best red zone teams in the nation, USC won’t be able to get away with squandering such golden opportunities.
“You can’t win with field goals,” quarterback Jayden Maiava said.
Only a few teams in college football are better at converting red-zone trips into touchdowns than Notre Dame, which scores touchdowns on 76% of its trips inside the 20. The Irish have only had to settle for field goals on four of their red-zone trips this entire season.
Leonard has been especially dangerous as he nears the end zone. His 13 touchdowns are tied for third nationally among quarterbacks in rushing scores.
“When they get in the red zone, it’s really all about him,” Lynn said.
Risky business
During his first two starts, Maiava has not hesitated to fling the ball fearlessly downfield. That bold approach is part of what makes him dynamic. It has also never been tested by a defense like Notre Dame.
Only two teams over the past 10 years have allowed fewer 20-plus yard pass plays in a season than Notre Dame, which has allowed fewer than two per game this season.
Opposing quarterbacks have also completed less than 48 percent of passes against Notre Dame this season – the lowest completion rate allowed since 2016 – and picked off 15 passes, the ninth-most of any defense in college football.
To be fair, Notre Dame hasn’t faced many passing offenses like USC, either. Just one of the Irish’s opponents this year (Louisville) ranks in the top 50 in passing yards nationally. Most of them rank outside the top 100.
“He’s got a really good arm and he isn’t putting them in many negative situations,” Freeman said of Maiava. “They’re playing well on offense but their whole offense hasn’t changed. He’s just done a really good job at taking care of the football and making some good decisions.”
Not-so-high stakes
Notre Dame can play its way into the College Football Playoff with a win, while USC is just hoping to end on a high note, securing a seventh win that would send them to El Paso or Las Vegas for bowl season.
The stakes for the two rivals might not be the same. But considering the history between them, Riley said this week that it “would be disrespectful to not be as ready as you possibly can be.”
USC was not ready when the two teams met last season. After starting the season 6-0, the Trojans were bombarded in a 48-20 blowout loss to Notre Dame. They spiraled from there, losing four of five.
The pressure is on the Irish this season, a fact that coach Marcus Freeman seems well aware of. This week, he played tape of the 2022 USC win in the rivalry over and over on all the televisions in the team’s practice facility.
“The noise and the things outside of this game that have nothing to do with this game,” Freeman said, “that’s the reason why it’s a challenge.”
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This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
