As recently as a week ago, the SEC was arguing it deserved five teams in this year’s College Football Playoff. There have already been proposals where the league (along with the Big Ten) would get four automatic bids in future years.
Well, if you want to know the nightmare scenario for the SEC in the 2024 12-team field, it’s this: just two teams.
Yes, two.
The College Football Playoff committee released its latest rankings on Tuesday and the cake is beginning to get closer to being baked when it comes to who is in and who is out.
After a disastrous weekend for the SEC that saw home underdogs Florida, Oklahoma and Auburn upset playoff contenders Ole Miss, Alabama and Texas A&M, respectively, the league has just three teams in the current bracket.
Texas, the presumed SEC champion, is No. 2. Georgia, which has already clinched a spot in the SEC title game, is No. 8. Tennessee is seeded ninth, and would play in Athens in the opening round.
Alabama (13), Ole Miss (14) and South Carolina (15) all sit on the outside looking in, stuck with three losses.
Here’s how it could all go wrong for the SEC:
No. 20 Texas A&M (8-3) defeats Texas on Saturday in College Station. The loss drops Texas to 10-2, but without a single victory over a ranked opponent. The committee drops the Longhorns from third in the rankings all the way out of the bracket.
Texas A&M advances to the SEC title game, but loses to Georgia to finish the season at 9-4. The Aggies would be out.
That leaves Georgia with the automatic bid and seeded second overall. Meanwhile, Tennessee (10-2 if it can beat Vanderbilt) is safely in the field and likely hosting a first-round game.
But that’s it.
There would be an open spot for someone to jump up into (the one Texas was giving up), but currently the committee likes No. 12 Clemson over Alabama (9-3 if it beats Auburn in this weekend’s Iron Bowl) and Ole Miss (9-3 if it gets past Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl).
Clemson, meanwhile, is hosting No. 15 South Carolina. If the Tigers were to defeat the Gamecocks, then Clemson is going to be the team that is best positioned to move up.
Of course, South Carolina could win and secure an impressive victory, but would the committee move them ahead of Alabama and Ole Miss, both of whom defeated the Gamecocks earlier in the season?
Either way, the SEC could really use some help.
Notre Dame losing at USC and falling out would free up one bid. Miami losing at Syracuse could do it as well because it would end the possibility of an ACC title game featuring 11-1 SMU against the 11-1 Canes — a matchup of one-loss teams where even the loser could stay in the field.
Whatever the case, the SEC is unexpectedly scrambling.
The league likes to point to its quality depth. It isn’t wrong. There are more good teams in that league than any other, including the Big Ten, which is top heavy.
It also means a lot of teams beat each other up, causing the losses to rack up. How does the committee factor all of that? So far it doesn’t appear impressed with the argument, although it has been known to change course in the final rankings.
Consider Alabama, the Zombie Tide, who sure looked dead after an ugly 24-3 loss last weekend at Oklahoma. The Tide have three losses, including two bad ones (Vanderbilt and the Sooners). They also have three victories over currently ranked teams — Georgia, South Carolina and No. 21 Missouri.
Which matters more?
Or consider South Carolina, which dropped three games (LSU, Ole Miss, Alabama), but has been playing extremely well the last five weeks. If it were to win at Clemson, that would give the Gamecocks three victories over CFP ranked teams (Clemson, Texas A&M and Missouri). The Gamecocks also crushed Oklahoma, 35-9.
Indiana (11-1 if it beats Purdue) would have no such victory over a ranked team. Penn State (11-1 if it beats Maryland) would have just one — No. 23 Illinois.
Which matters more?
No one, perhaps not even the committee, knows. And, of course, there could just be widespread chaos and upsets this weekend which makes all the worrying and politicking pointless. Just a week ago, Tennessee looked out. Now the Vols control their destiny and could still host a playoff game.
The SEC is a big and powerful force in college football, though, in a sport that has long followed the golden rule — those with the gold make the rules.
A three-bid SEC season would not go over well in Birmingham. A two-bid? Who knows what they do.
That’s the current system and these, per the committee’s latest smoke signals, are the stakes — just in case Texas at Texas A&M, let alone South Carolina at Clemson, could matter even more.
